With less than five weeks until election day, here is a quick overview of the state of the Montana U.S. Senate election mainly between Democrat Jon Tester and Republican Tim Sheehy.
Two third party candidates will be on the ballot, despite a lawsuit from the Montana Democratic Party attempting to remove the Green Party candidate. Sid Daoud will represent the Libertarian Party and Robert Barb will represent the Green Party. Neither were included in this week’s debate, as they did not meet the criteria set out by Montana PBS.
In recent polling, Tim Sheehy has taken a consistent lead. He holds a 5.8 point margin over Tester in the RealClearPolitics polling average and a 4.3 point margin over Tester in the FiveThirtyEight polling average. The most recent poll, conducted by Remington Research Group from September 16-20, gave Sheehy a 52-44 edge over Tester.
According to FEC data, Tim Sheehy has raised just over $14 million, while Jon Tester has raised over three times as much at $44 million. Tester has also received more donations from lobbyists than any other member of Congress.
While originally considered a toss-up, several analysts believe this race to now be in Sheehy’s favor, with Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball now both projecting this race as “Leans Republican”.
Tester is considered the most vulnerable incumbent Democrat in this election cycle, and Republicans see this race as their best chance to take the Senate majority not just for this cycle, but through the decade, as there are not any clear pickup opportunities for them in 2026 or 2028.
