This past Saturday, October 26, Emerson College released one last poll on the Montana U.S. Senate race before election day. Coming in amidst a national upward trend in early voting, the poll showed Sheehy with a 50-46 advantage over Tester.
The 4-point margin is half of the 8-point lead that the New York Times and Remington Research polls gave Sheehy earlier this month. The poll is an improvement for Sheehy relative to the last poll conducted by Emerson College, which gave him a 2-point lead back in August. While not as stark a victory for Sheehy as other pollsters have given him, a four-point lead in the poll with the largest sample size in this race should be reassuring.
Nationwide, battleground states seem closer than ever. In the U.S. Senate Races, Bernie Moreno and Sherrod Brown have traded one and two point leads in the most recent polls from Ohio, Elissa Slotkin holds a one to two point lead over Mike Rogers in Michigan, Eric Hovde and Tammy Baldwin in the three most recent polls have had a tie and a win each over in Wisconsin, and Bob Casey, Jr. has seen what was once a double-digit lead shrink to a tie with Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania. All these seats are currently held by Democrats, and all Democrat candidates have seen their leads slipping. Democrats currently have a 51-49 majority in the Senate, but are expecting to lose two seats in the Montana and West Virginia races, so any Republican upsets will likely just add to a Republican majority.
In the Presidential Election, former President Donald Trump is expected to win in Montana by nearly 20-points. Elsewhere, however, margins are razor thin. The election is expected to come down to the seven key battleground states of Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. According to Nate Silver’s model, Trump holds the lead in Arizona by 2.0 points, in Georgia by 1.4 points, in North Carolina by 1.2 points, and in Pennsylvania by 0.4 points. Vice President Kamala Harris leads in Michigan by 0.6 points and in Wisconsin by 0.4 points. Nevada sits in a tie.
Pennsylvania seems to be the most pivotal state, as President Trump could win by taking just Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. If Vice President Harris takes Pennsylvania, she would only need to carry Wisconsin and Michigan.
