Recession? Not Yet, but “The Party is Over”

Are we in a recession yet? Whether we are– as has been the national debate about the technical semantics of it all — according to Montana’s premier economist, Dr. Pat Barkey, “It doesn’t feel like a recession yet….but there has been a significant decline” in the country ‘s production levels. “It doesn’t look like we will make it up in the next quarter.”

It especially hasn’t felt like it in Montana where we have been “skating” on a booming economy, but “challenges are stacking up,” said Barkey, in Tuesday morning’s mid-year update on the state’s economic performance so far this year, at the DoubleTree in Billings. The report was presented by the Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BBER). 

Barkey was wowed by the level of revenue the State Government is receiving from income taxes. In 2019 state revenue was up 10 percent which was “good” but in 2022 revenue collections are over 35 percent higher – over $2 billion — reflecting big increases in revenue two years in a row. The State of Montana has a $1.8 billion surplus.

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