As November 5th quickly approaches, the Montana U.S. Senate race has quickly become Republican candidate Tim Sheehy’s to lose. The candidate has seen a relatively positive linear trajectory in polling, as he was behind by as many as nine points in February, but now holds the lead by a polling average of 5.2 points according to RealClearPolitics.
The most recent reputable poll to drop was conducted by a bipartisan coalition of Fabrizio Ward and David Binder Research and sponsored by AARP. The poll was conducted between August 25 and August 29 and took responses from 600 likely voters. In a head-to-head race, the poll found Sheehy holding a 6-point lead over Tester, at 51% to 45%. In a full ballot, Sheehy held an 8-point lead, at 49% to 41%, while third party candidates received 5% and another 4% were undecided. Sheehy’s lead in either circumstance is firmly outside of the poll’s reported margin of error of 4%.
Larry Sabato at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics changed his Crystal Ball projection for the Montana Senate seat from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Republican” last week on September 6. The Center for Politics cited the AARP poll as the final straw that flipped their projection in Sheehy’s favor. In 2006, Sabato was named the most accurate source of election predictions by MSNBC, CNBC, and Pew’s Project for Excellence in Journalism.
The Hill’s election forecast model predicts that Tim Sheehy currently has a 75% chance of beating Jon Tester. Other election forecasters to predict a Republican lean include Split Ticket, and CNalysis.
