In the last week, two major polls have been published, one from Rasmussen Reports and one from the Napolitan Institute.
The Rasmussen Reports poll was conducted from August 14 through August 20 with a sample of 835 likely voters. This poll has Tim Sheehy with a sizable lead of 50% to Jon Tester’s 43%, with 7% undecided. This has been the most favorable poll Tim Sheehy has had yet. The poll is in line with the overarching trend of the race, as late July and early August polls had him up by around just 2 points, and before that Jon Tester led in most major polls. Rasmussen’s poll would suggest that the trajectory of this race has had a somewhat linear and positive trend towards Sheehy.
The Napolitan Institute poll was conducted by RMG Research from August 6 through August 14 with a sample size of 540 registered voters. This poll, with a certain degree of skepticism given the smaller sample size, had incredibly interesting results. The poll has Jon Tester with 49% to Tim Sheehy’s 44%; however, when voters were asked how they would vote if they knew this race would decide which party had the majority in the United States Senate the results drastically changed. Voters favored a Republican majority to a Democratic majority by a 55% to 37%. Poll respondents also strongly favored former President Donald Trump in the presidential election, favoring him to Vice President Kamala Harris by a margin of 18 points. The polling was conducted via online survey and has a margin of error of 4.2%.
The difference in results for a straight up race between Tester and Sheehy versus deciding the U.S. Senate majority party are fascinating, as Montana likely will decide the Senate majority. Democrats have essentially already ceded Joe Manchin’s West Virginia seat to Republicans, situating the Senate in a virtual 50/50 tie. All signs point towards Montana being the closest race, with Jon Tester accepting more lobbying money than any other member of Congress, and President Trump coming out to Montana to support Tim Sheehy despite leading the state by a huge margin. Montana is the primary battleground for control of the United States Senate, as Republicans need to flip just one seat to reclaim the majority, and Montana seems like their best chance.
