Economically, Montana had a “fantastic” year in 2021, and 2022 is being forecast to be much the same, but there are challenges.
At the forefront of his forecast, Montana’s premier economist, Dr. Patrick Barkey, Director of the Bureau of Business and Economic Research at the University of Montana, is projecting a decline in the seven percent inflation rate – “a stunning number” — to something closer to 3.5 or 4 percent, which is still “a lot of inflation.” Skyrocketing energy prices are contributing the most to the inflation rate. Some commodities have actually declined in price.
Dr. Barkey was quite cautious about his projection, noting that over the recent past a lot of economic projections have been wrong. Dr. Barkey was among the presenters on Tuesday at the Big Horn Resort in Billings for the annual Montana Economic Outlook Seminar, which is hosted by the BBER.
Economically speaking, Montana had a great year in 2021, and Dr. Barkey expects 2022 to continue that trend. He pointed to some amazing things that happened in 2021 that were unimaginable going into the COVID-19 pandemic. “Who would have thought that coming out of a recession, to go buy a house would be considered a good idea,” said Barkey, expressing his surprise.
Equally amazing are unemployment rates that are dipping to as low at 1.7 percent, as is the case in Yellowstone County. Statewide the rate is at a record low of 2.5 percent. Montana ranks fifth among states with the lowest unemployment.
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