Last week, the New York Times and Siena College released a poll conducted among 656 likely Montana voters. The results are in line with other recent polling, showing Republican Tim Sheehy with a 7-point lead over Democrat Jon Tester.
The poll had a margin of error of 4.3 percentage points. Less than 0.5% of respondents supported a third-party candidate, and 4% were undecided. Most of the undecided voters identified as Republican, which would suggest that Sheehy has more room to improve than Tester.
Interestingly, when respondents were asked which party they wanted to control the Senate, 55% answered Republican compared to 37% who answered Democrat, a margin of 18 points. This is of interest, because the Montana Senate race may be the race that decides which party holds a majority in the U.S. Senate. According to OpenSecrets, spending on this race has surpassed $170 million, which based on the number of Montana voters in 2020, would be about $280 per voter. Other Senate battleground states come nowhere close to this amount of spending per capita, with Ohio at about $45 per voter and Pennsylvania at about $29 per voter. It’s apparent both parties view Montana as the path to a Senate majority, so it is curious that Sheehy’s lead is only 7 when Montanans prefer a Republican-led Senate by a margin of 18.
Sheehy led each age demographic other than 18-29, and surprisingly polled better with non-white respondents than with white respondents. He held a 51-45 lead among whites and a 55-41 lead among non-whites. Sheehy carried leads of 14 and 13 in Billings and Bozeman respectively, while Tester held a 35-point lead in Missoula. Seven percent of respondents that plan on voting for Donald Trump for President also plan to vote for Jon Tester. However, with far more registered Republicans than Democrats in Montana, this would not be enough for the three-term Senator to gain a fourth.
Tester’s favorability rating was net negative, with 35% of respondents viewing him as very unfavorable and 16% as somewhat unfavorable (rounded to 50% total unfavorable), while only 30% see him as very favorable and 17% as somewhat favorable (47% total favorable). Sheehy’s favorability was net positive, with 52% of respondents viewing him as somewhat or very favorable, while only 46% viewing him as somewhat or very unfavorable.
The poll also covered the presidential and gubernatorial races, which are far less competitive. Former President Donald Trump held a 17-point lead over Vice President Harris and Governor Greg Gianforte held a 22-point lead over Ryan Busse.
Respondents were also asked what their single most important issue was. Immigration and the economy tied for first at 22% each, with abortion third at 15%. 61% of respondents believe that Trump would handle the economy better than Harris, while just 37% favored Harris on the issue. On immigration, 61% of respondents favored Trump to 36% who favored Harris. On abortion, 49% favored Trump to 45% for Harris.
